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Antowan Batts's avatar

Well argued and I am in complete agreement. I have said these things since undergraduate and I will be finishing my master's in November. Economics is such a silo. Which is why I love people like Carolina Alves who are leading the charge to decolonizing Economics. The weird assumption of rational agents and other absurd assumptions drive me crazy.

However, I am optimistic. More and more people are talking about it. I am also excited about new fields like Cliometrics that use mathematical models to derive insights from History. The road may be rocky but it is traversible.

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Robert Ackrill's avatar

This was supposed to be a reply to Gabriel's posting. Not sure why it is not showing as such. Anyway...:

Hmmmm. This comment appears to me entirely consistent with the perspective of economics critiqued in the main article - and in so doing, makes clear some of its principal problems. First, the conflation of facts and knowledge. The output generated by econometrics is most definitely knowledge. But it is only a fact insofar as it is built on specific assumptions that rarely, if ever, are made explicit. That is, the output generated is conditioned by the assumptions made, the quality of the data, and is only a 'fact' for the data used. There is too much evidence that of all 'scientific' subjects, Economics has pretty much the worst record on reproducibility and replicability (and not, they are not the same!) To give the example I used to give my students, Bill Phillips did not prove an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment - he merely did not disprove it. That came later as the relationship identified for one country at one point in time broke down there...and elsewhere.

This is where a study of methodology and research philosophy would help. On my MSc, of the 28 students (it was a very long time ago, before TPG recruitment went through the roof), I was the only one who had studied such things at UG level. Interestingly, on the MSc, it was taught as part of the core econometrics course, the lecturer being not only a brilliant applied economist, but also someone who understood the limitations of what he was doing and teaching.

Given all of this, the nature of 'science' when applied to Economics is quite different to so many of the 'pure and applied sciences' taught in other parts of a university. How do you make chemical compound X? By combining chemicals A+B+C in known quantities under known conditions. How do you people to reduce their energy use? What data do we use? How big is the Rebound Effect? How reproducible and replicable are those findings?

The problem is not that Economic models are only locally rational. The problem is that orthodox/mainstream Economists are unwilling or unable to acknowledge the limitations inherent in any Economic analysis, quantitative or qualitative. And it is that which raises the fundamental questions seen in the article. There are multiple schools of heterodox Economics that attempt to address these shortcomings, but they are either ignored or dismissed.

When HM The Queen asked why nobody saw the Financial Crisis coming, the real answer is that plenty of people did. But they were being ignored because the Economic models and the assumptions underpinning them were not capable of addressing fundamental flaws in the Economic system. But it is impossible to account for factors that are not being ignored in the first place, by those whose models had intellectual primacy - for better and for worse.

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